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Stop Guessing. Pick Right.
Issue #016
Date: 20 April 2026
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Hey there, Reader,
Something big is happening behind the scenes at 44Risk PM.
If you've visited 44RiskPM.com recently, you've probably landed on a "Website Under Construction" page. That's not an accident, I'm working with a professional to give the 44Risk PM brand a full upgrade, and I can't wait to show you what we've built.
While the site gets its glow-up, you can still access the full course schedule right here, including the:
PMI-RMP® Exam Prep Course kicking off May 16th.
If that's been on your radar, now's the time to grab your spot before it fills up.
As always, reply to this email anytime. I read every single one.
Alright, Now Lets Get Proactive Over Reactive!
Quote of the Week
“First, have a definite, clear practical ideal; a goal, an objective. Second, have the necessary means to achieve your ends; wisdom, money, materials, and methods. Third, adjust all your means to that end.”
~ Aristotle
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Lesson of the Week
You're in the risk review meeting.
The big, scary risk... the one sitting at the top of your register with the angry red rating, has eaten up the last 45 minutes of airtime. Your stakeholders are animated. Someone just asked for a deep dive on it next week. Your project sponsor is nodding along.
Then the meeting ends.
Nobody mentioned the three medium risks sitting two weeks out.
Not once.
Here's the uncomfortable truth: your team didn't ignore those risks on purpose. They just did exactly what the scoring told them to do... focus on magnitude (Probability and Impact).
And that's the problem.
Probability and impact are the foundation of qualitative risk analysis.
The PMP® covers them well. But they are the starting point, not the finish line. And if your team is treating them like the whole picture, your risk register has blind spots. Guaranteed.
The Two Factors That Change Everything
The first one is proximity... and it's the one I see teams miss most often.
Proximity asks one simple question: When is this risk actually going to happen?
A high-probability, high-impact risk that's six months out doesn't need the same attention today as a medium risk materializing in two weeks.
But when you're only scoring probability and impact, those two risks sit in completely different worlds on paper and completely the same world in practice. Your team is focused on the monster on the horizon while the snakes at their feet go unnoticed.
That's not a people problem. That's a system problem.
The second factor is reliability, and this one is sneakier.
Ask yourself: where did those probability scores actually come from?
In most cases, the answer is "expert opinion." Which is fine, until it isn't. Expert opinion gets colored by recency bias, optimism bias, and sometimes just the confidence level of whoever spoke loudest in the room.
If you never question how sure you actually are about your scores, you're building your register on assumptions dressed up as analysis.
The fix is straightforward. Add two columns to your risk register: Proximity (when does this hit?) and Confidence Level(how solid is our data?).
What you get: That medium risk due in two weeks suddenly looks very different. It should move up the priority list. And now you have a system that catches it before it becomes a crisis.
This is the difference between someone who passed the PMP and someone who thinks like a risk professional.
The Bearded Risk PM on YouTube
Watch the full video on:
"Your Risk Workshop Isn't Working Because of This"
 Please don't forget to "Like" the video and Comment PMI-RMP® or PMP® Exam Prep Question you have!
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44Risk PM Courses and More!
If you've been thinking about getting your PMP® or PMI-RMP® in 2026 (and you should - the market demand is only growing right now), below are your next chances:
PMP® Exam Prep
New 2026 PMP® Course based on PMBOK 8th Edition
Dates: 13-14 | 20-21 June
Format: Virtual, 8 hrs/day, Weekend Course
What's Included: All study materials, practice exam, 35 contact hours, application guidance, and access to me.
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PMI-RMP® Exam Prep
Dates: 16-17 | 23-24 May
Format: Virtual, 7.5 hrs/day, Weekend Course
What's Included: All study materials, practice exam, 30 contact hours, application guidance, and access to me.
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Free Training
Get my Free Training on What You Need to Know to Pass the PMP®.
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NEW Free Training
The Roadmap to the PMI-RMP® Certification.
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PM Dad Joke of the Week
How does a PMI-RMP® celebrate getting certified?
They assess the risks of a celebration first, then party strategically.
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P.S. What's a risk on your current project that's been sitting in "medium" status for weeks... but is actually closer than you think? Hit reply and tell me.
Russ Parker
Founder, 44Risk PM
PMP® | PMI-RMP® | PMI-ACP® | Retired USMC
PMI-ATP Instructor for the PMP® and PMI-RMP®
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